Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 33.360215 36.043612 38.960689 42.389385 46.338055 50.778983 56.203317
2025-04-06 29.071482 32.593668 36.670446 41.814012 48.245233 56.187807 67.024479
2025-04-13 26.020406 29.825643 34.402021 40.442693 48.423124 58.955427 74.589126
2025-04-20 24.901047 29.133966 34.411609 41.690784 51.858090 66.256045 89.766818
2025-04-27 23.933654 28.478482 34.318057 42.682146 54.959432 73.529205 106.887810
2025-05-04 23.036850 27.801745 34.082336 43.378555 57.647012 80.606879 126.001663
2025-05-11 21.951184 26.773079 33.252450 43.088896 58.730195 85.216221 142.175774
2025-05-18 20.947982 25.776612 32.371360 42.602883 59.385511 89.150397 158.545309
2025-05-25 19.954728 24.727124 31.330080 41.755881 59.300524 91.663393 172.768390
2025-06-01 19.042205 23.736534 30.303372 40.829866 58.944497 93.555664 186.392357
2025-06-08 18.154331 22.735019 29.198629 39.684656 58.057558 94.194009 196.951010
2025-06-15 17.938704 22.673778 29.472316 40.773719 61.327385 104.331701 244.026210
2025-06-22 17.327932 22.038991 28.883361 40.453678 62.056380 109.343989 280.049910
2025-06-29 16.709918 21.368051 28.205319 39.935532 62.357005 113.520381 318.544643
2025-07-06 15.964982 20.477188 27.138502 38.662681 60.988538 113.189484 336.381638
2025-07-13 15.826934 20.475999 27.453757 39.821785 64.754472 127.555937 461.586991
2025-07-20 15.642289 20.392791 27.629039 40.741304 68.173811 142.506461 651.096618
2025-07-27 15.411581 20.226508 27.656564 41.386645 71.099136 157.428115 946.949711
2025-08-03 15.018151 19.792555 27.220323 41.118287 71.859522 165.475535 1247.925056
2025-08-10 14.615187 19.328197 26.710281 40.667822 72.120431 171.926624 1642.080545
2025-08-17 14.174187 18.789319 26.051715 39.882196 71.454954 174.627642 2033.371960
2025-08-24 13.743524 18.253325 25.376744 39.022438 70.506841 175.950295 2479.996933
2025-08-31 13.297591 17.680868 24.619747 37.957934 68.927394 174.186181 2791.704844